Sandstone Press

Emergencies in Mozambique . . . some reflections from Chris McIvor

Posted by RLD on 16th December 2009

Some time ago a colleague in London asked me why Mozambique has so many emergencies; floods most years, regular cyclones, periodic drought. I responded that it was partly a question of unfortunate geography. The simple fact is that if it rains in Angola, Namibia, Zimbabwe, Zambia or Malawi sooner or later that water will end up in Mozambique. Even when the rains are marginally above normal the rivers downstream will flood. That’s partly because so many trees have been cut and forests destroyed in all the countries in the region. The water simply runs of the hills directly into the rivers, without it being absorbed into the soil.

In 2008 the rains were considerably above normal in all of the above countries and Mozambique suffered the consequences. Tens of thousands of people had to move to higher ground to avoid drowning. In 2002 the same thing happened but at a greater scale. Scores of people drowned as their homes were washed away with little warning.

At the same time the coast of Mozambique is right in the path of the Indian Ocean cyclones, when they hit land. The prognosis for the coming season (January to April of 2010) is worrying, with an increased number of cyclones predicted because of warmer currents in the Pacific. If that isn’t bad enough the south of Mozambique is prone to drought. At the moment some half a million people are in need of food aid because they didn’t get enough rains earlier this year for their crops and animals.

Emergencies are not just about geography and climate. When people are poor they take risks. They find land close to flood prone areas to make use of the silt that is deposited every year to produce a better harvest. They live in coastal areas where they can fish, even if they are directly in the path of cyclones.

I remember when I was working in Haiti several years ago when a cyclone hit the island. Large parts of the country were affected and hundreds of people were killed. The same cyclone with the same intensity, the same wind speed, the same amount of precipitation etc went on to hit the south east coast of the United States. Only one person was injured when he was hit by a falling tree while walking his dog. In other words emergencies are not just about physical events like too much water, too little water or too much wind. It’s about people’s vulnerability, and what makes people vulnerable is not just about where they live but about how they live.

Last year a farmer in central Mozambique told me that he expected to be flooded out of his home every three to four years, but if he didn’t farm along the river he wouldn’t have enough food for his family. Faced with a choice of starvation or an occasional threat he opted for the latter. That’s why if we ever expect people to move out of harm’s way they need to be offered an economic alternative, since it is economic considerations that often place them at risk in the first place. We also need to remember that there are good reasons why people make these choices, even when we are tempted to criticize them for being foolish, or when we wonder why they continue to live in areas of danger from which they will probably have to be rescued.

Finally a word about climate change. As the recent floods in the UK and parts of Saudi Arabia have shown, when the weather becomes more extreme everyone is affected, but not everyone will be affected equally. If you are poor and have to eke out a living along the banks of a river in Mozambique, climate change means a more frequent probability of losing your crops and possibly your life as well. Instead of every three to four years the farmer I spoke to will have to move every one or two years or maybe abandon his home altogether.

The possible effects of climate change on Mozambique are all negative. The chief climate change advisor to the UK Government was in Maputo a few months ago issuing some dire warnings. The best computer models predicted a scenario of more floods in the centre of Mozambique, more cyclones in the north and more drought in the south. A poor country with few resources is being asked to shoulder the burden of energy profligacy in richer parts of the world. There is considerable anger here when people are told that everyone will have to make sacrifices. ‘It wasn’t our responsibility. So why do we have to pay for the consequences of your carbon emissions,´ asked one participant at the meeting in Maputo.

The next few months of the emergency season are always the most worrying time in Mozambique. You contemplate the weather forecasts with trepidation. You watch the satellite images of cyclones forming in the Indian Ocean, hoping that they will turn elsewhere. It would be nice to say that the damage and destruction caused by emergencies in this country will diminish over time. If predictions about the climate turn out to be true then there is little consolation for people who will have to brace themselves for a cycle of floods, cyclones and droughts for many years to come.